2010-8

摘要

"Ormen Lange field, Norway, Commercial Asset Valuation and Forecast to 2040

Summary

Ormen Lange field is the second largest gas field in Norway. It is located 120km off the north west coast of Norway.

The field lies at the water depths of 800-1100m The field was discovered in 1997 and ranks as the largest development in the European offshore arena. The field’s discovery lies across blocks 6305/4, 6305/5, 6305/7 and 6305/8. The field development was started in April 2004 and came on stream in 2007. The field’s production is expected to meet 15-20% of the UK’s gas requirements.

Statoil Hydro was the operator for the development phase of the field and Shell is the operator of the operational phase of the field. Statoil Hydro, an integrated oil and gas company, holds a 28.92% stake in the field. Shell, current operator of the field, holds around 17.03% of stake in the field. Petoro holds the majority stake in the field with 36.47%.other equity holders include Dong with 10.34% and Exxon Mobil with 7.23%.

The estimated total recoverable gas reserves of Ormen Lange field are around 10,654 billion cubic feet of gas and 117 million barrels of condensate. Production from the field started in September 2007. The total remaining reserves are around 8,384 billion cubic feet of gas and 89.25 million barrels of condensate. Ormen Lange field condensate has high quality crude oil with of 60.4° API and 0.01 mass % of sulphur.

Ormen Lange field produced 10.35 million barrels of condensate and 734bcf of crude oil during 2009. The field life of Ormen Lange field is expected to be around 34 years with complete abandonment during 2040. The field is expected to generate $11.25 billion in revenues (undiscounted) during its remaining life (starting January 1, 2010) and is expected to yield an IRR of around 12.62%.

Scope

- The report provides detailed information on oil and gas production, infrastructure, reserves, geology, operator and equity partners and the latest fiscal terms applicable to the asset and provides its fair value (Remaining Net Present Value) based on remaining reserves, forecast production, capital and operational costs, fiscal regime and commodity prices.
- The report also provides additional valuation parameters like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Pay Back (discounted and undiscounted), Entitlement Production (EP) and Working Interest (WI) to enhance your decision making process.
- This report provides detailed sensitivity analysis of the remaining NPV with changes in the commodity prices, discount rate, production and key fiscal terms.
- Detailed cash flows over the life of the asset are included in the report. These cash flows cover a wide range of calculations related to various payments to the government/licensing authority.
- Interactive Excel models can be used to derive custom valuations, sensitivities and cash flows based on the specific inputs by the user in the model. These custom inputs vary from production data, cost information, price information and fiscal terms information.

Reasons to buy

- Make well informed investment decisions based on detailed operational analysis and cash flow forecasts
- Estimate the fair value of your future investment under different economic and fiscal conditions
- Value a prospective investment target through a comprehensive analysis using focused forecasting and valuation methodologies.
- Supporting interactive excel model will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner
- Evaluate how the changes in the country’s fiscal policies impact the cash flows and the present value of the asset"

目录及图表

"1 Table of contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 4
2 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Introduction 5
3 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Geology and Formation 6
4 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Equity Partners 7
5 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Crude Oil Reserves 8
6 Ormen Lange field,  Norway, Key Fiscal Terms 9
7 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Infrastructure 10
7.1 Upstream Infrastructure 10
7.1.1 Four eight slot templates and Import pipelines 10
7.1.2 Gas processing plant-Nyhamna 10
7.2 Midstream Infrastructure 11
7.2.1 Ormen Lange field — Langeled pipeline 11
8 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Field Development Plan 12
9 Ormen Lange field Norway, Synthetic Crude Oil Production 14
10 Ormen Lange field, Canda, Field Economics 16
10.1 Ormen Lange field, Economic Assumptions 16
10.1.1 Forecast Commodity Prices 16
10.1.2 Inflation 16
10.1.3 Discount Rate and Representation of Cash Flows 16
10.1.4 Sensitivity 16
10.1.5 Access to the Economic Model 16
11 Ormen Lange field, Cash Flow Analysis 16
11.1 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis 17
11.1.1 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Discount Rates 17
11.1.2 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Change in Commodity Prices and Production 18
11.1.3 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Income Tax and Production Rate 19
12 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Summary Cash Flows 20
12.1 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Front End Load Due To Fiscal Policy 21
12.2 Ormen Lange field, Norway, Tax Liability 22
13 Appendix 24
13.1 Methodology 24
13.2 Coverage 24
13.3 Secondary Research 24
13.4 Primary Research 24
13.5 E&P Forecasts 25
13.6 Capital Costs 25
13.7 Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) Costs 25
13.8 Operating Costs 25
13.9 Expert Panel Validation 26
13.10 About GlobalData
13.11 Contact Us
13.12 Disclaimer"
"1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Ormen Lange field, Norway, Key Asset Data, 2010 5
Table 2:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Equity Partners and Their Equity Stakes, 2010 7
Table 3:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Reserves Classifications, January 2010 8
Table 4:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Pipeline details, 2010 12
Table 5: Ormen Lange field Norway, Historic and Forecast Gas Production, MMcf, 2007-2040 14
Table 6: Ormen Lange field Norway, Historic and Forecast Condensate Production, Thousand barrels, 2007-2040 15
Table 7: Ormen Lange field Norway, Commodity Price Assumptions, 2010-2040 16
Table 8:  Ormen Lange field Norway, Project Analysis Metrics, 2010 17
Table 9: Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change,  in Billion Dollars, 2010 18
Table 10:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis over Commodity Price Change Vs Production Rate, in Billion Dollars, 2010 19
Table 11:   Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis at 10% Discount Rate over Income Tax Change Vs Production Rate, in Billion Dollars, 2010 19
Table 12: Ormen Lange field, Norway, Asset Summary Cash Flows, Thousand US$, 2004-2040 20
Table 13: Ormen Lange field, Norway, Front End Load, Thousand US$, 2007-2040 21
Table 14: Ormen Lange field, Norway, Tax Liability Estimations, Thousands US$,2004-2040 22"
"1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Location Map, 2010 6
Figure 2:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Illustrative Diagram of Geology and Formation, 2010 7
Figure 3: Ormen Lange field, Norway, Current Equity Details, 2010 8
Figure 4:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Gas processing plant, Nyhamna, 2010 11
Figure 5:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Langeled Pipeline, 2010 11
Figure 6:  Ormen Lange field Norway, Norway, process flow diagram, 2010 13
Figure 7:  Ormen Lange field Norway, Norway, projected development plan, 2010 13
Figure 8:  Ormen Lange field Norway, Historic Production and Forecast, 2007-2040 14
Figure 9: :  Ormen Lange field Norway, Gross Revenue Versus Tax Cash Flow Analysis, 2007-2040 16
Figure 10:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change,  in Billion Dollars, 2010 17
Figure 11:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis over Change in Production Vs. Commodity Price Change, in Billion Dollars, 2010 18
Figure 12:  Ormen Lange field, Norway, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Income Tax Change Vs. Production  Rate, in Billion Dollars, 2010 19"