2010-8

摘要

"Ninian, United Kingdom, Commercial Asset Valuation and Forecast to 2030

Summary

Ninian oil field is located 144km east-northeast of Shetland Island in the North Sea. It lies in the blocks 3/3 and 3/8 of United Kingdom Continental Shelf. The area of Ninian field is 580 square km (20,000 acres) and water depth varies from 134m to 149m. Ninian field was discovered in January, 1974 and production commenced in December, 1978.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited is the operator of Ninian field with 87.06% equity stake and Eni UK Limited is the other equity partner.

The crude oil produced from Ninian field has a specific gravity of 37 ° API with 0.75% sulfur content. The gas produced from the field is used as a fuel at platform. The crude produced is exported to Sullom Voe via pipeline.

Ninian field has produced 5.91 million barrels of crude oil and 3,312.47 MMcf of natural gas during 2009. The overall oil in place in the field is estimated to be 3,250 million barrels of oil and 940 bcf of solution gas out of which 1,400 million barrels of crude oil, 63 million barrels of natural gas liquid and 230 bcf of gas are estimated recoverable reserves.

Ninian field is expected to produce about 20 more years with complete abandonment by the 2030. Ninian is expected to generate $4.45 billion in revenue (undiscounted) during its remaining life (starting January 1, 2010) and is expected to yield an IRR of around 15.78%.

Scope

- The report provides detailed information on oil and gas production, infrastructure, reserves, geology, operator and equity partners and the latest fiscal terms applicable to the asset and provides its fair value (Remaining Net Present Value) based on remaining reserves, forecast production, capital and operational costs, fiscal regime and commodity prices.
- The report also provides additional valuation parameters like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Pay Back (discounted and undiscounted), Entitlement Production (EP) and Working Interest (WI) to enhance your decision making process.
- This report provides detailed sensitivity analysis of the remaining NPV with changes in the commodity prices, discount rate, production and key fiscal terms.
- Detailed cash flows over the life of the asset are included in the report. These cash flows cover a wide range of calculations related to various payments to the government/licensing authority.
- Interactive Excel models can be used to derive custom valuations, sensitivities and cash flows based on the specific inputs by the user in the model. These custom inputs vary from production data, cost information, price information and fiscal terms information.

Reasons to buy

- Make well informed investment decisions based on detailed operational analysis and cash flow forecasts
- Estimate the fair value of your future investment under different economic and fiscal conditions
- Value a prospective investment target through a comprehensive analysis using focused forecasting and valuation methodologies.
- Supporting interactive excel model will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner
- Evaluate how the changes in the country’s fiscal policies impact the cash flows and the present value of the asset"

目录及图表

"1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 3
1.2 List of Figures 3
2 Ninian, United Kingdom, Introduction 4
3 Ninian, United Kingdom, Geology and Formations 6
4 Ninian, United Kingdom, Equity Partners 8
5 Ninian, United Kingdom, Crude Oil Reserves 9
6 Ninian, United Kingdom, Key Fiscal Terms 9
6.1 Royalty 9
6.2 Rentals 9
6.3 Taxation 9
6.4 Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT) 9
7 Ninian, United Kingdom, Infrastructure 10
7.1 Upstream Infrastructure 10
7.1.1 Ninian Central Platform 10
7.1.2 Ninian Northern Platform 11
7.1.3 Ninian Southern Platform 12
7.2 Midstream Infrastructure 13
8 Ninian, United Kingdom, Development Plan, Investment and Expenditure 14
9 Ninian, United Kingdom, Crude Oil and Associated Gas Production 15
10 Ninian, United Kingdom, Economics 18
10.1 Ninian, United Kingdom, Economic Assumptions 18
10.1.1 Forecast Commodity Prices 18
10.1.2 Inflation 18
10.1.3 Discount Rate and Representation of Cash Flows 18
10.1.4 Sensitivity 18
10.1.5 Access to the Economic Model 18
10.2 Ninian, United Kingdom, Cash Flow Analysis 19
10.3 Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis 21
10.3.1 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Discount Rates 21
10.3.2 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Change in Commodity Prices and Production 22
10.3.3 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Income Tax and Production Rate 23
11 Ninian, United Kingdom, Summary Cash Flows 25
11.1 Ninian, United Kingdom, Front End Load Due To Fiscal Policy 27
11.2 Ninian, United Kingdom, Tax Liabilty 29
12 Appendix 31
12.1Methodology 31
12.2Coverage 31
12.3Secondary Research 31
12.4Primary Research 31
12.5E&P Forecasts 31
12.6Capital Costs 32
12.7Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) Costs 32
12.8Operating Costs 32
12.9Expert Panel Validation 32
12.10 About GlobalData
12.11 Contact Us
12.12 Disclaimer"
"1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Ninian, United Kingdom, Key Asset Data, 2010 4
Table 2: Ninian, United Kingdom, Field Reserves, January 2010 9
Table 3: Ninian, United Kingdom, Crude Oil and Associate Gas Historic Production and Forecast, 1978-2030 16
Table 4: Ninian, United Kingdom, Commodity Price Assumptions, 1978-2030 18
Table 5: Ninian, United Kingdom, Project Analysis Metrics, 2010 20
Table 6: Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Change Vs. Commodity Price Change, m $ 21
Table 7: Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Commodity Price Change Vs. Production Change, m $ 22
Table 8:  Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Income Tax Rate Vs. Production Change, m $ 24
Table 9: Ninian, United Kingdom, Asset Summary Cash Flows, Thousand USD, 1974-2030 25
Table 10: Ninian, United Kingdom, Front End Load, Thousand USD, 1978-2030 27
Table 11: Ninian, United Kingdom, Tax Liability Estimations, Thousands USD, 1978-2030 29"
"1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Ninian, United Kingdom, Location Map 5
Figure 2: Ninian, United Kingdom, Geological Cross-Section 6
Figure 3: Ninian, United Kingdom, Stratigraphic Column 7
Figure 4: Ninian, United Kingdom, Current Equity Details, 2010 8
Figure 5: Ninian, United Kingdom, Ninian Central Platform 10
Figure 6: Ninian, United Kingdom, Ninian Northern Platform 11
Figure 7:  Ninian, United Kingdom, Ninian Southern Platform 12
Figure 8: Ninian, United Kingdom, Pipeline Layout 13
Figure 9: Ninian, United Kingdom, Crude Oil Historic Production and Forecast, 1978-2030 15
Figure 10: Ninian, United Kingdom, Associate Gas Historic Production and Forecast, 1988-2030 15
Figure 11: Ninian, United Kingdom, Gross Revenue versus Tax Cash Flow Analysis, 1978-2030 19
Figure 12: Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change 21
Figure 13: Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Commodity Price  Change Vs. Production Change 22
Figure 14:  Ninian, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Income Tax Rate Vs. Production Change 23"