2010-8

摘要

"Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Commercial Asset Valuation and Forecast to 2014

Summary

The Nelson field is located offshore in the central North Sea, block 22/11, in the UK. It is located in the 180km east of Aberdeen at 87m water depth. Shell U.K. Ltd is the operator of the field. The other equity partners in this field are ExxonMobil Corporation, Total E & P U.K. Ltd, Premier Oil ONS Ltd., and Idemitsu Petroleum U.K.Ltd. The previous operator of the field was Enterprise oil plc. Later on, Enterprise oil plc merged with Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

The Nelson field was discovered in 1988 and came on stream in 1994.  It produces crude oil with 40° API and 0.23% sulfur content. The price of the Nelson crude oil is at par with the Brent Blend.

The Nelson field produced an estimated average of 7.78 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) during 2009. The Nelson field achieved its peak capacity in 1996 with production capacity of 59.94 MMboe. Various development activities took place to maintain production from the field by using water injection technology.

The life of the Nelson field is expected to be around 21 years with complete abandonment during 2014. The field is expected to generate $1.17 billion in revenues (undiscounted) during its remaining life (starting January 1, 2010) and is expected to yield an IRR of around 16.11%

Scope

- The report provides detailed information on oil and gas production, infrastructure, reserves, geology, operator and equity partners and the latest fiscal terms applicable to the asset and provides its fair value (Remaining Net Present Value) based on remaining reserves, forecast production, capital and operational costs, fiscal regime and commodity prices.
- The report also provides additional valuation parameters like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Pay Back (discounted and undiscounted), Entitlement Production (EP) and Working Interest (WI) to enhance your decision making process.
- This report provides detailed sensitivity analysis of the remaining NPV with changes in the commodity prices, discount rate, production and key fiscal terms.
- Detailed cash flows over the life of the asset are included in the report. These cash flows cover a wide range of calculations related to various payments to the government/licensing authority.
- Interactive Excel models can be used to derive custom valuations, sensitivities and cash flows based on the specific inputs by the user in the model. These custom inputs vary from production data, cost information, price information and fiscal terms information.

Reasons to buy

- Make well informed investment decisions based on detailed operational analysis and cash flow forecasts
- Estimate the fair value of your future investment under different economic and fiscal conditions
- Value a prospective investment target through a comprehensive analysis using focused forecasting and valuation methodologies.
- Supporting interactive excel model will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner
- Evaluate how the changes in the country’s fiscal policies impact the cash flows and the present value of the asset"

目录及图表

"1 Table of contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 3
1.2 List of Figures 3
2 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Introduction 4
3 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Geology, Geography and Formations 6
4 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Equity Details 9
5 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves 10
6 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Applicable Fiscal Regime 11
6.1 Contract Type 11
6.2 State Participation 11
6.3 Royalty 11
6.4 Bonuses 11
6.5 Rentals 11
6.6 Fees 11
6.7 Taxation 11
6.8 Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT) 11
6.9 Ring Fence 11
7 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Infrastructure 13
7.1 Upstream Infrastructure 13
7.2 Midstream Infrastructure 13
8 NelsonField, Development Plan, Investment and Expenditure 14
9 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Oil and Gas Production 15
10 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Field Economics 18
10.1 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Economic Assumptions 18
10.1.1 Forecast Commodity Prices 18
10.1.2 Inflation 18
10.1.3 Discount Rate and Representation of Cash Flows 18
10.1.4 Sensitivity 18
10.1.5 Access to the Economic Model 18
10.2 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Cash Flow Analysis 19
10.3 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis 20
10.3.1 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Discount Rate and Commodity Price 20
10.3.2 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Changes in Commodity Prices and Production Rates 21
10.3.3 Remaining NPV Sensitivity to Income Tax and Production Rate 22
11 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Summary Cash Flows 23
11.1 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Front End Load Due To Fiscal Policy 24
11.2 Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Tax Liability 25
12 Appendix 26
12.1 Methodology 26
12.2 Coverage 26
12.3 Secondary Research 26
12.4 Primary Research 26
12.5 E&P Forecasts 27
12.6 Capital Costs 27
12.7 Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) Costs 27
12.8 Operating Costs 28
12.9 Expert Panel Validation 28
12.10 About GlobalData
12.11 Contact Us
12.12 Disclaimer"
"1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Key Asset Data, 2010 4
Table 2: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Reserves Classification, 2010 10
Table 3: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Historic and Forecast Production, 1994-2014 16
Table 4: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Commodity Price Assumptions, 2010-2014 18
Table 5: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Project Analysis Metrics, 2010 19
Table 6:    Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change,  in million Dollars, 2010 20
Table 7:  Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis over Commodity Price Change Vs Production Rate, in million Dollars, 2010 21
Table 8: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis at 10% Discount Rate over Income Tax Change Vs Production Rate, in million Dollars, 2010 22
Table 9: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Asset Summary Cash Flows, Thousand $, 1991-2014 23
Table 10: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Front End Load, Thousand $, 1994-2014 24
Table 11: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Tax Liability Estimations, Thousand $, 2004-2025 25"
"1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1:   Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Location, 2010 5
Figure 2:    Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Geology and Formation, 2010 7
Figure 3:    Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Reservoir Depth Structure Map, 2010 8
Figure 4 : Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Equity Details, 2010 9
Figure 5:    Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Process Flow Diagram, 2010 13
Figure 6:  Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Crude Oil Historic Production and Forecast, 1994-2014 15
Figure 7:  Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Natural Gas Historic Production and Forecast, 1994-2014 16
Figure 8: :  Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Gross Revenue Versus Tax Cash Flow Analysis, 1994-2014 19
Figure 9:    Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Discount Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change,  in million Dollars, 2010 20
Figure 10:    Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis over Change in Production Rate Vs. Commodity Price Change, in million Dollars, 2010 21
Figure 11: Nelson Field, United Kingdom, Remaining PV Sensitivity Analysis Over Income Tax Change Vs. Production  Rate, in million Dollars, 2010 22"