2010-9

摘要

Automakers are on the verge of mass-marketing plug-in electric vehicles worldwide, including both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as well as battery electric vehicles (BEVs). These vehicles offer improved fuel economy, lower emissions, and a quieter ride than comparable traditionally powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with several key variations in driving range capabilities. This combination will particularly appeal to consumers in the North American market where fuel costs are rising and range anxiety continues to be a concern (whether perceived or real).

As many automakers move into the plug-in vehicle market, they will find they are competing with a wide range of competitive options and brand loyalty. Additionally, new research is showing that in the United States consumers are still wary about high upfront costs for vehicles and government incentives will continue to play an important role in the consumer marketplace for many years to come. Pike Research forecasts that the market for plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars and light duty trucks will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106% between 2010 and 2015, resulting in sales of more than 3.24 million vehicles during that period.

This Pike Research report analyzes opportunities and challenges in the emerging market for PHEVs and BEVs. The report provides a comprehensive examination of electric drivetrain and battery technology, advanced battery research, government incentives and regulations, and key drivers of market growth. The study includes detailed lists of expected vehicles coming soon, forecasts through 2015 for light duty vehicle sales and production, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles in world regions, as well as vehicle segments and selected manufacturers for the United States. Key market players are also profiled.

Key questions addressed:
What are the different types of hybrid systems used in light duty vehicles?
Will consumers still purchase “traditional” hybrids after plug-in hybrids are available?
What are the key technologies used in plug-in vehicles?
What types of battery technology are being used and why are different technologies being pursued?
What types of battery technology will be used in future plug-in vehicles?
How are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles likely to be received by consumers when launched?
Will consumers accept plug-in hybrid electric vehicles instead of other alternative fuel vehicles?
How large will the HEV, PHEV, and BEV markets be globally?
Who are the key industry players in the HEV, PHEV, and BEV market?
What are the government incentives to purchase PHEVs and BEVs?
Who needs this report?
Vehicle manufacturers
Vehicle component suppliers
Electric motor manufacturers
Battery manufacturers
Government environmental agencies
Government transportation agencies
Environmental transportation advocacy groups
Vehicle trade associations
Automobile charging station manufacturers
Utilities
Investor community

目录及图表

Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Issues
2.1 History

2.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

2.2.1 Passenger Cars

2.2.2 Light Trucks

2.3 Conversion of Hybrids to Plug-in Vehicles

2.4 Battery Electric Vehicles

2.4.1 Passenger Cars

2.4.2 Light Trucks

3. Technology Issues
3.1 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Drivetrains

3.1.1 Parallel Hybrid Design

3.1.2 Series Hybrid Design/Extended Range Electric Vehicle

3.2 Battery Electric Vehicle Drivetrains

3.3 Battery Technology

3.3.1 Lithium Ion Battery Chemistry

3.3.1.1 Lithium Titanate Batteries

3.3.1.2 Safety Concerns

3.3.2 Advanced Battery Chemistry

3.3.2.1 Lithium Air

3.3.2.2 Lithium Sulfur

3.4 Ultracapacitors

3.5 Regenerative Braking

3.6 Recharging Infrastructure

3.6.1 Charging Equipment

3.6.2 Smart Meter Technologies for the Home

3.6.3 Recharging Habits and Public Recharging

4. Demand Drivers
4.1 Market-Based Demand

4.1.1 Energy Costs and Gas/Diesel Prices

4.1.2 Consumer Preference

4.2 Impact of Alternative Fuel Vehicles on Plug-in Vehicles

4.3 Government Emissions Regulations

4.3.1 United States

4.3.1.1 CAFE Standards

4.3.1.2 California Air Resources Board

4.3.2 Canada

4.3.3 Mexico

4.3.4 Europe

4.3.5 Japan

4.3.6 China

4.4 Government Incentives

4.4.1 United States

4.4.2 Canada

4.4.3 Latin America

4.4.4 Europe

4.4.5 Japan

4.4.6 China

4.5 Other Regulatory Incentives

5. Key Industry Players
5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers

5.1.1 BMW/Mini

5.1.2 BYD

5.1.3 Chery

5.1.4 Daimler

5.1.5 Ford Motor Co.

5.1.6 Fiat/Chrysler

5.1.7 General Motors

5.1.8 Honda

5.1.9 Hyundai/Kia

5.1.10 Mitsubishi

5.1.11 Nissan/Renault

5.1.12 PSA Peugeot/Citroen

5.1.13 Toyota Motor Corp.

5.1.14 Volkswagen/Audi

5.2 New Manufacturers/Converters

5.2.1 ALTe

5.2.2 Bright Automotive

5.2.3 CODA Automotive

5.2.4 Detroit Electric

5.2.5 Fisker Automotive

5.2.6 Tesla Motors

5.3 Key Suppliers

5.3.1 A123 Systems

5.3.2 AeroVironment

5.3.3 Better Place

5.3.4 Clipper Creek

5.3.5 Coulomb Technologies

5.3.6 Dow Kokam Inc.

5.3.7 EnergyCS (Battery Management Systems)

5.3.8 GS Yuasa

5.3.9 LG Chemical/Compact Power

5.3.10 Panasonic EV Energy

5.3.11 Ricardo

5.3.12 SB LiMotive

5.3.13 Siemens

5.3.14 UQM Technologies

5.3.15 Valence technology

5.3.16 ZF Friedrichshafen AG

6. Market Forecasts
6.1 Global Vehicle Sales and Production Forecast: 2010-2015

6.2 Hybrid Vehicle Forecast: 2010-2015

6.3 Global Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Forecast: 2010-2015

6.4 Global Battery Electric Vehicle Forecast: 2010-2015

6.5 Selected OEM Market Share: 2010-2015

6.6 Selected OEMs PHEV Market Share Forecast in the U.S.: 2010-2015

6.7 U.S. Plug-in Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment: 2010-2015

6.8 Summary and Conclusions

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
Total Electrified Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Plug-in Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
PHEV Sales by Segment, United States: 2015
Mix of New Passenger Car and Light Truck Sales by Model Year: 1985-2010
BEV Sales by Segment, United States: 2015
Overall Estimated Ownership Costs During Vehicle Lifetime
Consumer Consideration of Vehicle Alternative Engine Technology
Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: 2010-2015
Consumer Brand Preference for Purchasing BEVs
Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production, by Region, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total Light Duty Vehicle Production, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual PHEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual BEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Global Market Share for Selected Vehicle Manufacturers: 2010-2015
Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, United States: 2010-2015
Comparison of Plug-in Vehicle Market Share in U.S. and World Markets: 2015
Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: 2010-2015
PHEV Sales by Vehicle Segment, United States: 2010-2015
BEV Sales by Vehicle Segment, United States: 2010-2015
Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Series and Parallel Hybrid Drivetrains Diagram
BEV Drivetrain Diagram
Comparison of Energy Cost per Mile Between Electric and Gas Vehicles
Typical Residential Electricity Costs for Electric Vehicle
Purchase Probability Among All Vehicle Owning Households
List of Tables
Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, North America: 2010-2013
Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2010-2013
Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Europe: 2010-2013
Annual Growth in Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Growth in Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Vehicle Overproduction, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Growth in Total HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total HEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Growth in Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total PHEV Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Growth in Total BEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Total BEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Growth in Plug-in Vehicle (PHEV/BEV) Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual Plug-in Vehicle (PHEV/BEV) Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Sales, World Markets: 2010-2015
Sales Growth for Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: 2010-2015
Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: 2010-2015
Global Market Share for Selected Manufacturers: 2010-2015
Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: 2010-2015
Plug-in Vehicle Market Share For Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: 2010-2015
PHEV Sales Growth Rates by Segment, United States: 2010-2015
PHEV Sales by Segment, United States: 2010-2015
BEV Sales Growth Rates by Segment, United States: 2010-2015
BEV Sales by Segment, United States: 2010-2015
Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, United States: 2010-2015
Plug-in Vehicle Market Share For Selected Manufacturers, United States: 2010-2015
Overall Estimated Ownership Cost Models, United States
Consumer Consideration of Vehicle Alternative Engine Technology
Consumer Brand Preference for Purchasing BEVs