2010-5

摘要

Tourism Overview
 In regards to the number of foreign tourist arrivals, 2008 and 2009 were uninspiring years. After a weakening in foreign arrivals growth in 2008 of just 1% year-on-year (y-o-y), the situation deteriorated in 2009 with negative annual growth of 1% to less than 9.3mn visitors. Domestic tourism fared far worse however, with tourist numbers down by 13% compared with 2008. Due to the dominance of foreign visitors, overall tourism numbers fell by a more modest 3% y-o-y in 2009. Among the top source markets, Germany, Italy, Austria and Poland all provided positive growth in the number of visitors in all accommodation establishments, while arrivals from Slovenia, the Czech Republic, France and the UK fell. Data for January 2010 show foreign tourist arrivals were down by 24% y-o-y, with domestic tourist numbers falling by 14%. Combined foreign and domestic tourist arrivals fell by nearly 19% y-o-y.
Hospitality
 After a weak performance in the hospitality sector in 2008, the outturn in 2009 was poor, with a slight fall of 1% y-o-y in the total number of tourist nights, to nearly 56.3mn. The number of foreign tourist nights (90% of the total) declined marginally to 50.5mn, with the average number of nights per tourist at 5.4 nights. The number of domestic tourist nights fell by 10% y-o-y to about 5.8mn. Only two key foreign source markets, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, showed slight falls y-o-y in tourist nights. Total tourist nights fell by over 16% y-o-y in January 2010, with the number of foreign and domestic nights falling by 24% and 10% y-o-y respectively.
Industry Forecast Scenario
 We have revised up our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 to positive growth of 3% y-o-y, up from 1% growth in our previous report. Underlying this forecast is mild economic recovery in major source markets, with the eurozone tentatively emerging from recession in 2010 and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011. Also, we believe the Croatian kuna’s relative stability against the euro over the next few years will help support the competitiveness of the tourism sector for foreign visitors from the eurozone.
Air Passenger Traffic
 Indicative of a weaker tourism year, international passenger air traffic on Croatian carriers was down by 12% y-o-y in 2009. At Zagreb Airport, the main international airport in Croatia and the primary hub for the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines, total passenger numbers fell by 6% y-o-y to under 2.1mn. During the first two months of 2010, passenger traffic at the airport remained poor, down by 9% y-o-y.
Adris Group
 Data for the domestic hospitality operator Adris Group for the first nine months of 2009 show its total income reached HRK2.58bn (US$520mn), unchanged compared with 9M08. Operating profit amounted to HRK675mn (US$136mn), a fall of nearly 5% y-o-y. Over the same period, tourism operations recorded a small 1% y-o-y drop in overnight stays.

目录及图表

Executive Summary  5
SWOT Analysis  7
Croatia Tourism SWOT  7
Croatia Political SWOT  7
Croatia Economic SWOT ...... 8
Croatia Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Industry Forecast Scenario ..... 9
Arrivals . 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) .. 9
Accommodation .. 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) ... 12
Expenditure . 13
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014 ... 13
Inbound Tourism . 14
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 (‘000) ....... 14
Outbound Tourism ...... 15
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) ....... 16
Market Overview – Travel ...... 17
Commercial Airlines ... 17
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ..... 20
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)... 21
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl).... 22
Market Overview – Hospitality ...... 24
Table: Key Players In The Croatian Hotel Industry, 2008 .. 25
Accommodation Developments ... 25
Gaming ....... 27
Infrastructure ...... 28
Business Environment Outlook .... 29
Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings ... 29
Croatia’s Business Environment . 29
Table: Croatia’s Annual FDI Inflows, 2000-2006 ...... 30
Table: Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asian FDI Inflows, 2005-2006 ....... 31
BMI’s Security Ratings ....... 32
BMI’s Security Ratings ....... 32
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .. 32
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....... 33
Croatia’s Security Risk Ratings .. 34
City Terrorism Rating . 35
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ... 35
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview . 36
Currency Forecast . 39
Table: BMI’s Croatia Currency Forecast ... 39
Global Assumptions ..... 41
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012 ...... 41
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014 ...... 42
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 ... 43
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 . 44
Company Profiles .. 46
Adris Group  46
Croatia Airlines .. 47
Cubus Lux ... 48
Hilton .. 49
Liburnia Riviera Hoteli ....... 50
BMI Methodology .. 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 51
Tourism Industry . 51
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 52
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators ...... 53
Table: Weighting of Components  54
Sources ....... 54