2010-5
摘要
The Q310 BMI Singapore Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated SGD41.52bn (US$29.87bn) in 2010 to SGD47.23bn (US$34.72bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Singapore’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$179.6bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.4% is predicted by BMI to 2014. With the population expected to increase by 5.1% over the forecast period to 5.2mn, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$35,647 in 2010 to US$41,821 by 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$17,644 in 2010 to US$21,597 by the end of the forecast period.
The Singapore Department of Statistics’ figures show that median monthly household income from work among all resident households increased by 13% from SGD4,380 (US$3,068) in 2007 to SGD4,950 (US$3,469) in 2008. The number of households in higher income brackets also increased, with the proportion of employed households earning at least SGD7,000 (US$4,900) per month increasing from 33% in 2007 to 39% in 2008.
The city-state received 10.1mn visitors in 2008, according to the Singapore Tourism Board (STB). Tourism receipts were an estimated SGD14.8bn (US$10.4bn), a 5% increase year-on-year (y-o-y). However, visitor arrivals declined in 2009, with the most recent data available showing that arrivals fell by 9.2% y-o-y in January-August 2009 to 6.23mn. Although the rate of decline has slowed since June 2009, the STB still says reaching its previous target of 17mn visitor arrivals and SGD30bn (US$21bn) in tourism receipts for 2015 will be a challenge.
BMI forecasts the over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sector to be worth US$0.13bn in 2010 and sales will increase by nearly 14% to US$0.15bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are also predicted to increase by just short of 14%, from US$3.24bn in 2010 to US$3.69bn by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Singapore’s market share of 1.1% in 2010 is forecast to fall to 0.8% by 2014.
目录及图表
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Singapore Retail Business Environment SWOT .... 6
Singapore Political SWOT .... 7
Singapore Economic SWOT .. 8
Business Environment Outlook ...... 9
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings..... 9
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings .... 9
Singapore’s Retail Rating 10
Limits Of Potential Returns. 10
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 11
Market Overview .... 12
Key Players ...... 13
Current Trends. 13
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 14
Retail Growth Outlook ..... 14
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014 .... 14
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f ...... 16
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 16
Table: Singapore Economic Activity, 2007-2014 18
Regional Retail Outlook 19
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook ....... 19
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn) . 19
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn) .... 20
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014 .. 22
Mass Grocery Retail ...... 23
Singapore Mass Grocery Retail SWOT ....... 23
Market Overview ..... 24
Table: Structure Of Singapore’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2002-2008 ....... 25
Table: Structure Of Singapore’s MGR Market – Value Sales, 2002-2008 (US$bn) ..... 25
Table: Structure Of Singapore’s MGR Market – Value Sales, 2002-2008 (SGDbn) .... 26
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2008e ... 26
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 26
Table: Singapore MGR Indicators, 2005-2014 (US$bn) ..... 27
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 & 2018 ....... 28
Industry Developments..... 28
Consumer Electronics .. 30
Singapore Consumer Electronics SWOT .... 30
Singapore Electronics Industry SWOT 31
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 32
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (US$mn), 2007-2014 .... 32
Automotives ... 34
Singapore Autos Industry SWOT 34
Market Overview ..... 35
Table: Top 20 New Vehicles Registrations, January-October 2009 ..... 36
Commercial Vehicles ....... 36
Table: New Commercial Vehicle Registrations, 2003-2008 37
Table: Top 10 Commercial Vehicles By Brand, 2008 . 37
Table: Top 10 Commercial Vehicles By Brand, January-March 2009 . 37
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 38
Table: Registered Vehicles, 2008-2014 (CBUs) .. 39
Industry Developments..... 39
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data ..... 41
Section 1: Population .. 41
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 41
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030 ...... 42
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 42
Table: Education, 2000-2004 ..... 42
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 42
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 43
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 43
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 43
BMI Methodology .. 44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 44
Sources ....... 45