2010-5
摘要
The Q310 BMI Philippines Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a forecast PHP1.31trn (US$28.87bn) in 2010 to PHP1.63trn (US$39.75bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, an expanding population (especially in urban areas), rising consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in the Philippines’ retail sales.
The Philippines’ nominal GDP is a forecast US$194.6bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.8% is predicted by BMI through to 2014, reaching US$315.0bn. With the population expected to increase from an estimated 93.1mn in 2010 to 100.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 51% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$3,146. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,405 in 2010 to US$1,940 by 2014.
Although salaries in the Philippines remain low – BMI forecasts the 2010 average annual wage at US$2,000 – household incomes are substantially bolstered by contributions from family members working overseas. Total remittances into the country rose by 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2009, bringing the total to US$12.8bn, up from US$12.3bn in 9M08. BMI forecasts 14.5% growth in remittances in 2010, up from the 5.6% growth estimated for 2009, on the back of the US and global recovery.
With the majority of remittances going into consumption rather than investments, the retail industry is one of the beneficiaries. In urban areas in particular there are also increasing numbers of dual-income, middle class families and young professionals who are boosting retail sales.
The country’s growing youth population represents a key element of future retail spending. According to UN data, 36.7% of the Philippine population was in the 20-44 age range in 2005. This is forecast to increase to nearly 39% by 2015. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 60.9% in 2005 and should rise to almost 63% by 2015. The urban population, which accounted for 62.6% of the total in 2005, is predicted to reach nearly 70% by 2015. About 50% of the country’s total retail sales are concentrated in the Manila metropolitan area.
Consumer electronic sales are forecast to be worth US$3.77bn in 2010, according to BMI data, rising to US$5.33bn by 2014 (+30%). Sales of over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to increase from US$0.76bn in 2010 to US$1.46bn by 2014, a rise of just over 35%. Vehicles sales should increase by 22%, from US$1.09bn in 2010 to US$1.33bn by the end of forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. For the Philippines, the forecast market share of 1.1% in 2010 is expected to decrease to 0.8% by 2014.
目录及图表
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Philippines Retail Business Environment SWOT .. 7
Philippines Political SWOT .. 8
Philippines Economic SWOT 9
Business Environment Outlook .... 10
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings... 10
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings .. 10
Philippines’ Retail Rating 11
Limits To Potential Returns 11
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 12
Market Overview .... 13
Current Trends ... 13
Key Players . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Retail Growth Outlook ..... 15
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014 .... 15
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f ...... 17
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 17
Table: Philippines Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ...... 19
Regional Retail Outlook 20
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook ....... 20
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn) . 20
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn) .... 21
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014 .. 23
Consumer Electronics .. 24
Philippines Consumer Electronics SWOT ... 24
Philippines Electronics Industry SWOT ...... 25
Market Overview ..... 26
Computers... 26
Table: Computers Sales, 2006-2014 (US$mn) .... 26
Audio/Video 28
Table: AV Sales, 2006-2014 29
Mobile Handsets . 30
Table: Mobile Subscribers & Sales, 2006-2014 .. 31
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 33
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2006-2014 (US$mn) .... 33
Industry Developments..... 34
Automotives ... 36
Philippines Autos Industry SWOT ....... 36
Market Overview ..... 37
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 37
Production And Sales .. 37
Table: Autos Production & Sales, 2007-2014 ..... 37
Trade .. 39
Table: Autos Exports & Imports, 2007-2014 ...... 39
Industry Developments..... 40
OTC Pharmaceuticals ... 43
Philippines Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT ..... 43
Market Overview ..... 44
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime ... 44
Pharmaceutical Retail 45
Table: Top 20 Leading Pharmaceutical Companies In The Philippines (PHPbn) ....... 47
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 48
Table: Top 10 OTC Brands In The Philippines (PHPbn).... 49
Industry Developments..... 49
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data .... 50
Section 1: Population .. 50
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 50
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 51
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 51
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..... 51
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 51
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 52
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 52
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) ....... 52
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 53
BMI Methodology .. 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 54
Sources ....... 55