2010-5
摘要
The Q310 BMI Malaysia Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from a forecast MYR137.56bn (US$39.05bn) in 2010 to MYR227.16bn (US$64.44bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Malaysia’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$230.3bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 5.3% is predicted by BMI over the forecast period through to 2014. With the population expected to increase to 31.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$7,978 in 2010 to US$9,720 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$2,260 in 2010 to US$3,197 by the end of the forecast period.
Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle income country by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in 2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, urban households on average spent 1.8-times more than rural households in 2004- 2005. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 per month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to UN data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales.
BMI forecasts vehicle sales of US$6.04bn in 2010, rising to US$9.36bn by the end of the forecast period (+55.0%). Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to be US$0.40bn in 2010 and to increase to US$0.54bn by the end of the forecast period (+36.5%). Consumer electronics sales are predicted to rise from US$8.58bn in 2010 to US$11.09bn by the end of the forecast period (+21.6%). Helped by the Visit Malaysia campaign in 2007, the year of the 50th anniversary of Malaysia’s independence, the country received 20.9mn visitors that year, the Ministry of Tourism said. Tourism receipts amounted to MYR46.07bn (US$13.82bn).
Tourist arrivals increased in 2008, by 5.5% to 22.05mn, surpassing the 21.5mn target set by the government under the Ninth Malaysia Plan for 2006-2010. Shopping is the second-highest contributor to the country’s tourism receipts, and shopping revenue is estimated to have increased by 30% to MYR16bn (US$4.6bn) in 2008.
Tourist arrivals from January to August 2009 totalled 15.38mn, up 4.4% from 14.73mn in the same period of 2008. Tourism Minister Ng Yen Yen has said Malaysia aims to attract 24mn tourists and earn MYR54bn (US$16.93bn) in tourism receipts in 2010.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Malaysia’s forecast market share of 1.5% in 2010 is expected to decrease to 1.4% by 2014.
目录及图表
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT ...... 7
Malaysia Political SWOT ..... 8
Malaysia Economic SWOT ... 9
Business Environment Outlook .... 10
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings... 10
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings .. 10
Malaysia’s Retail Rating .. 11
Limits To Potential Returns 11
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 12
Market Overview .... 13
Key Players ...... 13
Current Trends. 14
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 16
Retail Growth Outlook ..... 16
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014 .... 16
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f ...... 18
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 18
Table: Malaysia Economic Activity, 2007-2014 . 20
Regional Retail Outlook 21
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook ....... 21
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn) . 21
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn) .... 22
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014 .. 24
Mass Grocery Retail ...... 25
Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT .. 25
Market Overview ..... 26
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2003-2008 27
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2003-2008 (US$bn) ... 27
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2003-2008 (MYRbn) .. 27
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2008 ..... 28
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 28
Table: Malaysia MGR Sales, 2005-2014 .... 31
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 & 2018 (%) 31
Industry Developments..... 31
Consumer Electronics .. 35
Malaysia Consumer Electronics SWOT ...... 35
Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT . 36
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 37
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn) .... 37
Industry Developments..... 38
Automotives ... 41
Malaysia Autos Industry SWOT .. 41
Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 42
Table: Malaysia Autos Production & Sales, 2007-2014 ..... 42
Table: Malaysia Autos Exports & Imports, 2007-2014 ....... 43
Table: Malaysia Autos Economic Contribution, 2007-2014 ....... 44
Industry Developments..... 44
Country Snapshot: Malaysia Demographic Data 46
Section 1: Population .. 46
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 46
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 47
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 47
Table: Education, 2000-2003 ..... 47
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 47
BMI Methodology .. 48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 48
Sources ....... 49