2010-5

摘要

Tourism Overview
 Given the global downturn in tourism, the outturn for foreign visitor arrivals to Hungary last year was relatively positive. According to data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), there was an increase in foreign arrivals, including same-day visitors, of 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009. Same-day visitors, accounting for 78% of total arrivals, increased by the same percentage, while the number of foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) increased by 2.8% y-o-y. After growth in arrivals (excluding same-day visitors) of 3.4% y-o-y in Q309, it accelerated in Q409 to 6% y-o-y, after poor growth in the first two quarters of 2009. For the year as a whole, the EU accounted for 82% of all foreign visitor arrivals to Hungary. Of the main source markets, the number of visitors from Romania and Serbia declined by 3.7% and 3.3% y-o-y respectively, while arrivals from Slovakia rose by almost 12%. The numbers of visitors from Austria and Germany were also slightly up.
Hospitality
 After a significant downturn in 2009, data for the first two months of 2010 show a recovery in the hospitality sector, with the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments up by 3.3% y-oy. Tourist nights by international visitors increased by nearly 6% y-o-y, but nights by domestic residents only went up by 1.3% y-o-y. Although tourist nights by German arrivals – an important source market – showed negative growth y-o-y, nights spent by tourists from Austria and Italy were rose strongly. In 2009, the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments declined by 8.4% y-o-y, with tourist nights by international visitors falling by 10.0%. Nights by domestic residents fell slightly less, by about 7% y-o-y. Tourist nights by German arrivals were down by a 10% y-o-y, while the number of British tourist overnight stays fell by 22% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate was 47% in 2009, compared with nearly 48% the previous year.
Forecast Scenario
 Largely due to the recent pickup in growth in foreign tourist arrivals, we have raised our growth forecast for visitors to 3.2% y-o-y in 2010. We also expect growth in arrivals to accelerate slightly in 2011, although further weakness is anticipated over the forecast period. The short-term forecast is based on economic recovery in Hungary’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, which is expected to tentatively emerge from recession this year and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011, as well as Romania and Slovakia, which are also expected to record moderate growth in 2010, accelerating in 2011. While volatility across Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets will likely remain pronounced in the short term, our forecast for the Hungarian forint is for further appreciation – restricting growth in tourist arrivals.
Malév Hungarian Airlines
 Hungary’s national flag carrier, Malév Hungarian Airlines, reported a considerable loss of HUF24.4bn (US$130mn) in 2009, compared with a HUF14.5bn (US$77mn) loss in 2008 – but the airline remarkably increased its passenger numbers by an 6% y-o-y to 3.3mn people. After lengthy negotiations, the state reacquired a majority 95% ownership of Malév in February 2010. The strategic thinking appears to be that government ownership will guarantee financial stability for the airline while an intensive restructuring programme continues.

目录及图表

Executive Summary ...... 5
SWOT Analysis .... 7
Hungary Tourism SWOT... 7
Hungary Political SWOT .. 8
Hungary Economic SWOT  9
Hungary Business Environment SWOT ......... 10
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 11
Arrivals .. 12
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 ........ 13
Accommodation ......... 14
Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014 ..... 14
Expenditure ...... 16
Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2006-2014 ..... 16
Inbound Tourism ........ 17
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2005-2014 .... 18
Outbound Tourism ..... 19
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2005-2014 . 19
Market Overview – Travel ...... 21
Commercial Airlines .. 22
Table: Hungarian Airline Market Key Players, 2009 ....... 24
Car Rental Firms ....... 27
Global Oil Products Price Outlook  27
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)... 29
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl) ... 30
Market Overview – Hospitality ........ 31
Table: Hungary Accommodation Sector Leading Operators, 2008 ....... 31
Accommodation Developments ...... 32
Infrastructure ... 33
Business Environment Outlook ...... 35
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings ... 35
BMI’s Security Ratings ........ 35
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings ....... 36
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index  37
Hungary’s Security Risk Rating ..... 37
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview  38
Currency Forecast ....... 41
Table: BMI’s Hungary Currency Forecasts, 2010-2011 ... 41
Global Assumptions ... 43
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012 .... 43
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014 ........ 44
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 . 45
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 ......... 47
Company Profiles ........ 48
Accor-Pannonia Hotels ... 48
Hilton  49
Danubius Hotel And Spa . 50
Malév Hungarian Airlines ........ 51
Wizz Air ...... 52
BMI Methodology ........ 53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 53
Tourism Industry ... 53
Tourism Business Environment Ratings ........ 54
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators .. 55
Table: Weighting of Components ........ 56
Sources ....... 56